Rental storm-clouds are likely to clear – Brexit or not

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Buy-to-Let:

That’s according
to David Alexander, managing director of DJ Alexander the
Edinburgh and Glasgow based letting agents.

“More
than two-thirds of the way through, 2019 hasn’t been the best of
years for private residential landlords. The threat of rent controls
by some local authorities in Scotland along with creeping taxation
(in the form of a reduction in breaks) by Westminster have brought
gloom north of the Border,� says Mr Alexander writing for The
Scotsman newspaper.

These changes have
been in-part responsible for a UK-wide exodus of landlords from the
buy-to-let market to the tune of around 120,000 over three years,
that’s according to research published by Hamptons International.

However, recent
research indicates a slowdown in those numbers getting out. The
figures show that this year there could be around 18,000 more
landlords selling than there are buying, which compares to nearly
35,000 in the same period last year.

So why is this
happening?, asks Mr Alexander.

“Well, somewhat
ironically, Brexit is playing its part. While some, correctly, refer
to the uncertainty caused to the market by the present goings on in
Parliament, the threat of a no deal departure from the EU is also
largely responsible for a drop in mortgage rates by banks and
building societies, which undoubtedly reduces the monthly outlays
paid by new-entrant landlords or existing landlords seeking a new
mortgage deal with their existing or an alternative lender.

“At the beginning
of the year all the signs were pointing to rising savers rates which
I suppose must have encouraged some landlords (especially those who
originally entered the market with some reluctance) to cash in their
investments in stone and mortar and plump for the “simplicity� of
savings.

“Instead the trend
has been in the opposite direction. Most two-year fixed rate bonds
offered by lenders covered by the Financial Services Compensation
Scheme pay less than 2 per cent while it is now below 1.5 per cent
for notice savings accounts over the same period. By contrast,
according to Moneyfacts, the average two-year fixed interest rate on
a buy to let mortgage at loan to value of 60 per cent has gone down
to 1.97 per cent from 2.1 per cent a year ago,� says Mr Alexander.

If it should
transpire that the UK leaves the EU without a deal, Mr Alexander
says, many believe that the Bank of England will reduce the base rate
from the present 0.75 per cent in an effort to hold back the
prospects of recession – this he says will further increase the gap
between interest earned from savings and net returns from buy-to-let
– even allowing for greater levels of taxation via the latter.

“To those who fear
that Brexit discord will have a negative impact on demand for rented
property, and therefore rental income, I would say that people will
still need a roof over their heads. Indeed during a period of
economic uncertainty folks tend to rent rather than commit themselves
to a mortgage. More existing landlords selling up than buying rental
property could also lead to a drop in supply which would help sustain
rental levels,� he says.

Meanwhile other
research undertaken by Zoopla in June indicates that an average
first-time buyer needs a household income of £54,400 to secure a
mortgage on their first property, £4,500 more than in 2016 and a
national average deposit required currently stands at £38,418.

Although these
figures take in all UK statistics including the higher house prices
and incomes in London and the south-east of England, it nevertheless
shows the attractions and advantages of renting for young people.

Mr Alexander
concludes by saying:

“In a nutshell,
therefore, 2019 is likely to end in much the same way as it began for
landlords but I remain confident that – Brexit or no Brexit –
demand will remain steady and any clouds currently hovering over the
buy-to-let market will recede in time.�

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