A recovering commercial property market is beginning to stall…

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A recent RICS survey finds that interest rate hikes and cost of living pressures are beginning to weigh on sentiment. Credit conditions have deteriorated to such an extent that 43% of respondents to the RICS survey felt “we’re in early downturn.” Investor sentiment is steady, but the market has slowed, they say.

The healthy recovery the industry was reporting just a few months ago as the country emerges from Covid has been short lived. The recovery in demand for retail property is stalling as cost of living pressures affect consumer demand.

Capital value expectations are turning flat for at least the coming twelve months, RICS thinks.

Credit conditions are deteriorating as 43% of respondents to the RICS survey feel the market is now entering a downturn. In response RICS is releasing a ten point “levelling up plan” which is aimed at supporting communities through the delivery of local economic growth, including attracting investment.

The cost of living crisis and the BoE interest rate hikes have caused a “cautious tone” across the commercial property market, thinks RICS and this is mirrored across the whole of the UK.

The RICS UK Commercial Property Survey Q2 2022 just released is the firmest indicator yet that the market is turning down and the signs of a slowdown in the economy are real.

RICS has now released its “levelling up plan” that includes calls to Government to work with industry to attract inward investment to support the economy and our communities for sustainability – levelling-up-and-sustainable-placemaking

The series of interest rate hikes sanctioned by the Bank of England in recent months has seen a net balance of minus 42% of respondents citing a deterioration in credit conditions in Q2, dampening momentum behind investor activity.

That said, for the time being at least, the latest reading for investment enquiries remains positive (net balance plus12% compared to plus 32% last quarter), even if momentum is fading. Beneath the headline figure, the solid pick-up in investor demand for office space also lost momentum, with the net balance slipping to minus 1% from plus 23%. Overseas investment demand has also lost impetus.

Across all sectors, although occupier demand is still increasing, it is not at the same level as in Q1.

In the sector breakdown there is a decline in occupier interest for retail space with very modest growth for offices. The industrial sector is propping up the headline figure, as tenant demand remains comfortable for warehouses – even if the latest net balance of plus 49% is the least elevated figure since Q4 2020.

Meanwhile, leasable office and retail space continues to rise, returning net balances of plus 22% and plus 27% respectively. This is having a knock on effect of landlords increasing the value of incentives packages to tempt occupiers back into the market. Rental growth expectations are therefore now only in modestly positive territory. This is still positive, but is the lowest net balance since Q1 2021.

Tarrant Parsons, RICS Economist, says:

“As the UK economy grapples against significant impediments to growth, the gloomier macro outlook appears to be dampening sentiment across the commercial real estate market. In particular, with the Bank of England sanctioning several interest rate hikes over recent months in an attempt to ward off inflation, respondents report that credit conditions are now tightening within the sector.

“This, in turn, appears to be weighing on investment activity, which lost some momentum at the headline level during Q2. Given interest rates are set to rise further from here, it appears the market may be at a turning point, with an increasing share of survey participants throughout the UK now feeling conditions are consistent with the early stages of a downturn.”

Phil Clark MRICS, Chair of the RICS Commercial Property Forum added:

“This week, RICS have released a ten point levelling up plan aimed at supporting communities through delivery of local economic growth, as part of the UK Government’s levelling up strategy.

“These new investment figures underline the challenges in attracting investment in an uncertain economic environment.

“It is vital that the UK Government and private sector work together to attract investment and meet the challenge of sustainable placemaking in the built environment, supporting economic regeneration and providing jobs, and easing economic pressure on people across the UK. RICS is committed to working to support delivering this with the UK Government.”

RICS is calling on Government, through the Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill, to address the nationwide housing shortage. It wants Government to reform the planning process to create a more efficient system for both communities and developers.

RICS wants encouragement and integration of critical infrastructure to support employment-led growth, ensuing that projects avoid unnecessary contractual conflicts. This RICS believes can be achived through the greater understanding and utilisation of alternative dispute resolution (ADR).

Q2 2022: UK Commercial Property Market Survey here

RICS 10 point levelling-up-and-sustainable-placemaking recommendations here

HM Gov. Levelling up the United Kingdom here

View Full Article: A recovering commercial property market is beginning to stall…

HAVE YOUR SAY: Take our survey on Govt’s plans to abolish Section 21 evictions

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LandlordZONE readers are being asked to complete a short survey on the Government’s plans to abolish Section 21 ‘no fault’ evictions.

Outlined within the recent Fairer Renting White Paper, the government plans to prevent landlords in future evicting tenants without having to give a reason.

Instead, Ministers plan to bolster the Section 8 process but this would mean landlords going through a slower and more expensive eviction process, and having to reveal why they want to repossess a property and evict the tenant.

The survey is being conducted by Landlord Action, whose founder Paul Shamplina (pictured) is on a working group which advises the Government on the private rented sector to help inform future legislation.

“This information will be helpful in reforming grounds for possession under Section 8, making sure that landlords have effective means to get their property back when necessary once Section 21 is abolished,” he says.

The survey also asks landlords if they have ever had problems gaining access to a rented property to undertaken key safety and regulatory checks such as completing gas or electrical safety checks.

To complete the survey, click here.

View Full Article: HAVE YOUR SAY: Take our survey on Govt’s plans to abolish Section 21 evictions

Rental property repossessions 56% down on pre-pandemic figures

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Industry analysis by Landlord Action has revealed that the number of rental property repossessions carried out on behalf of landlords across England and Wales has increased by 1,487% annually, following the end of the tenant eviction ban implemented to protect the nation’s renters during the pandemic.

View Full Article: Rental property repossessions 56% down on pre-pandemic figures

Landlord evictions increase 15-fold in 12 months, official figures show

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Repossessions by landlords of private rented homes have increased by 1,487% year on year, latest figures from evictions specialist Landlord Action reveal.

The staggering figure, which includes England and Wales, reflects the resuming of evictions by landlords over the past year following several Covid-related possessions bans.

As a result, during the pandemic only cases where it was deemed necessary were processed, meaning that there were just 817 rental properties repossessed during 2020-21.

To put the percentage increase in context, this means that during 2021/22 some 12,965 rental properties were repossessed among the 4.4 million rented homes in England, or around 0.29%.

Also, the much higher level of repossessions seen over the past year is 56% fewer than the 29,347 recorded in the pre-pandemic year of 2019-20.

Floodgates

“At first glance, it would appear as though the floodgates have opened where the repossession of rental properties is concerned, but this isn’t quite the case,” says Eddie Hooker (pictured) CEO of the Hamilton Fraser Group, which operates industry schemes such as mydeposits, the Property Redress Scheme and Client Money Protect, as well as Landlord Action.

“Following a year where tenant evictions were banned except for in certain circumstances, there was always going to be a spike in repossessions as a backlog of cases finally started to be processed.

“But we’re yet to see the level of rental homes being repossessed return to pre-pandemic levels and there are also a lower proportion of initial claims making it to this final, last resort stage.

“While delays due to the backlog of cases may certainly be one cause, it’s also fair to say that the nation’s landlords have largely acted with empathy and understanding following the pandemic, understanding the problems facing many tenants and looking to help them rather than turf them out on their ear.”

View Full Article: Landlord evictions increase 15-fold in 12 months, official figures show

Conflict of Interest with fees paid by purchaser?

admin    Uncategorized     agents

Hi All, I have recently come across a ‘Modern’ online method of auction. The house to be sold was circa £225,000.

The online auctioneer was instructed by the vendor, but the fee of £6,000 was to be paid by the purchaser.

View Full Article: Conflict of Interest with fees paid by purchaser?